Greg Sterling wrote about online advertising revenue projections this week…
According to the just-released IAB/PwC online ad revenues report, US online ad spending reached $5 billion for the second quarter and $10 billion for the first half of 2007. Year over year growth was just over 26%. Online ad revenues should hit or exceed $20 billion for the full year, 2007.
The distribution of revenues across ad categories is also follows:
- Search remains the largest revenue format, accounting for 41 percent of 2007 first six-month revenues. Search advertising revenues totaled $4.1 billion for the first six months of 2007.
- Display-related advertising revenues totaled $3.2 billion or 32 percent for the first six months of 2007. Display-related advertising includes Display ads (21% of 2007 first six-month revenues or $2.1 billion), Rich Media (7% or $699 million), Broadband Video (1% or $100 million), and Sponsorship (3% or $300 million).
- Classifieds revenues accounted for 17 percent of 2007 first six-month revenues or $1.7 billion.
Lead Generation revenues accounted for 8 percent of 2007 first six-month revenues or $799 million.What’s striking is that:
Online advertising continues to remain concentrated with the ten leading ad-selling companies, which accounted for 70 percent of total revenues in the second quarter of 2007.
Assuming that the projections are fulfilled and US Internet ad revenues reach $20 billion, that will mean that as an ad medium the Internet is larger than:
- Yellow pages
- Radio
- Outdoor
- Most categories of TV (though not in the aggregate)
- Most categories of magazines
But consumers don’t trust online ads vs. traditional media advertising. That’s a problem for marketers that want to shift more of their budgets online to pursue those audiences. Internet ads have to be done much more thoughtfully than traditional advertising.
The Local Onliner has an interesting piece today. Read the whole enchilada here.
Under-served small communities are getting more attention. Companies like TownNews, Greyboxx and Topix have set out to focus on small town and exurban residents, and aggregating those local users for advertisers.
Now that’s revealing. A purpose of these sites is to herd together local folks for the convenience of national corporations. This might explain why so many national “local online” efforts seem lacking in the soul department. How many people get USA Today delivered to their doorstep vs. the locally owned daily paper?
As we wrote in April, Topix – a 25 person company that is 80 percent owned by Gannett, Tribune and McClatchy – has been aggregating local news from a variety of sources. It has 25,000 news sources in 20,000 communities. It counts more than 12 million unique visitors.
Lately, it has also been incubating local blogs and other User Generated Content. It is now getting 60 percent of its content from user generated posts; and 60 percent of those posts come in without a linking story. The traffic is disseminated via bookmarks, email, and a number of affiliates who use it for personalized local news, including CNN, Ask, Infospace and My AOL.
The emphasis on User Generated Content isn’t particularly hard to discern, notes new CEO Chris Tolles, who was formerly head of marketing (founding CEO Rich Skrenta and VP of Business Development recently left the company to launch a startup). Tolles is also speaking on the SES side at ILM/SES Local. “You don’t have local headlines in a small town,” he says. “There is no ‘there’ there. Local news is not a search problem.”
No local news in small towns? Another interesting statement from a major player in “local online” as practiced from 30,000 feet.
The effort to harvest UGC on a geographic basis, however, would seem to put Topix on a collision course with sites such as Placeblogger and Outside.in. Tolles says there may be a few points of collision, but notes that Topix is differentiated by its scale.
Those are “hand cranked sites.” Beyond a certain number of places, sites like Outside.in are…pretty bare. We are in many more places. We own towns with populations between 5,000 and 50,000,” he says, adding that nobody else gets in more than 10,000 cities, even though there are 32,500 U.S. zip codes.
Hmm… I think of small towns with great citizen journalism sites, like Brattleboro, Vermont. I’m guessing they don’t feel owned by some distant dot.com.
Now, what does that really mean? Only 8,900 communities in the U.S. are big enough to have cable TV franchises, for instance. We must be talking about very small places. Indeed, Tolles says some of the town count is enhanced by neighborhood data. “We’re loading in neighborhood data from a lot of cities,” he says.
And then there are localized sites such as Yahoo! and its local News. But Tolles says Yahoo! really isn’t a direct competitor — especially since it stopped supporting user forums.
For Tolles, Topix’s next challenge is fairly obvious: sell some advertising. He notes that the company hasn’t tried to sell advertising for two years, making most of its revenue from Google AdSense commissions and the like.
To that end, Topix recently hired a VP of sales. The differentiation points for Topix are clear to Tolles: a non-Facebook audience of local users in small and exurban communities. Whether ad agencies want those audiences, however, is another question. Typically, they’ve demanded to reach audiences in the “Top 20” or “Top 50” or “Top 100” markets. That’s why local newspaper networks haven’t done well.
But Tolles believes they’ll go where the market is. Wal Mart figured that out years ago, he says.
Now I understand… Walmart is the model for local online.
Andrew Shotland wrote yesterday…
Ian White’s Urban Mapping provides neighborhood data to local search companies meaning when you search for “Starbucks in Soho”, chances are the search engine you’re using uses Urban Mapping’s data to figure out where “Soho” is. Neighborhoods are weird things, most of them do not have defined boundaries of where they start and stop. I sort of know what I’m talking about when I say the “West Village” of NYC but chances are my definition is different than yours.
At SMX Local today, Ian went through the data that AOL accidentally leaked (something like 20 million searches) and found that 9% the search terms people used included what he classified as “neighborhood-specific” terms. Compare that to zip codes which accounted for less than 1% of the searches.
Jennifer Saba writes in Editor & Publisher on September 27, 2007 about a a Bank of America report by Joe Arns…
[O]nline ad revenue per reader is now roughly one-third to one-half of that generated by print readers — a marked improvement from just a year ago.
Based on the total ad revenue per reader, in Q2 Bank of America estimates that on average, newspaper publishers generated about $25 to $38 of ad revenue per daily online reader compared with $70 for each print daily reader. This suggests that online readers are worth about 36% to 55% of the value of print readers, up from 28% to 42% in Q2 2006.
“In our view, the gain in online revenue per reader is remarkable given the severe cyclical headwinds that have had a disproportionate effect upon classified advertising — which makes up nearly 80% of the online newspaper ad revenue pie,” wrote Arns.
Driving the online monetization: the shift of classified ad spending from print to online and the surge in local retailers turning to online advertising.
Ghost of Midnight is an online journal about fostering community within neighborhoods, with a special focus on Front Porch Forum (FPF). My wife, Valerie, and I founded FPF in 2006... read more